The interim results of French property has been marked by a slight overall decline in rental income in a consumer environment "soft" and wait for business.
The leaders and industry experts believe, however, after two years of falls, rents in prime (good quality and well placed) are stabilizing.
However, in the absence of strong growth, they do not expect any real upturn in rents for office before long.
"Rents have been falling, but we do not expect them back soon.It would take a rather long period of growth to produce scarcity (office) and I do not see it happen before two years, "said the president of the Federation of property development companies and (BIF).
"We are very close to a down cycle, but the recovery will be slower than usual.It will probably take four or five years to find a peak due to weak economic growth, "he told Reuters Jean-Paul Dumortier, President and CEO of Land Paris France, last week to mark the publication of accounts results.
The Director General of Gecina, Christopher Clamageran, had also held that the rent had come "after the fall" but were "not ready" to bounce back.
"We know that the market is at its low point, but we do not know the slope of the recovery," summarizes Diesbach Samuel Henry, an analyst at Kepler Capital Markets.
At constant perimeter, side offices, Gecina published rental income down 1.8%, Icade down 0.6% and Land Regions up 1.7%, while on the commercial real estate Klépierre has announced a recall of 0.7% of its revenues and Unibail-Rodamco, a slight increase of 0.4%.
LAST REFUGE
In this context, the vacancy rate rose again slightly and should continue to deteriorate by the end of the year. But some signs of stabilizing rents are beginning to be felt, experts note.
"There is still some wait on the rental market, but there is a return visits over approximately two months," said Jean-Paul Dumortier."There is also a certain arrest of gifts that we are requested (for businesses)."
In terms of the value of assets, the land could take advantage of investor enthusiasm for institutional direct property, as a last refuge in an economic environment and high-risk markets.
After a further decline of 10% to 15% of property prices for office last year, the capitalization rate asset "premium" have relaxed to 25-50 basis points in six months.
This interest in the stone, especially from insurance companies, led to a revaluation of the assets of land during the first six months of 2010.
On a comparable basis compared to late 2009, Icade has seen its assets revalued by 1%, 2.3% Gecina, Land Regions 1.7%, 4.7% and Unibail Klépierre 1.8%.
Despite uncertainty about the resumption of the cycle, the land began to position themselves to make the most of a recovery cycle.
Several of them have resumed their pipeline projects or have initiated slowly in development operations in white, and prepare for a possible wave of consolidation expected with the crisis.
"From a strategic perspective, the land showed that they positioned themselves in the next cycle," said Valérie Guez, an analyst at Exane BNP Paribas."They should make growth to offset the rental environment difficult, with development projects such as Unibail Klépierre Gecina and Silic particular, and consider participating in a possible consolidation as stated Gecina," says it.