The euro area, you love it or leave it. This was essentially the message from Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel George Papandreou yesterday evening after a mini-crisis summit in Cannes. French President and German Chancellor had laid their conditions in the referendum decided by the Greek Prime Minister: consultation should not include the bailout of the euro but on the desire to remain or not in the euro area. And it should take place before Christmas.

From that moment, George Papandreou began successive setbacks leading to consider later in the day to withdraw its proposed referendum."One of the benefits for Greece out of the euro area is to default on its debt of 100%, but funding needs remain still very important," Jesus Castillo analysis, an economist at Natixis. Indeed, if it defaulted on its debt unilaterally and not coordinated with its creditors, Greece will be banned for a long time in financial markets. But the Greek public deficit, excluding debt burden, reached another 2.5% of GDP. To provide for turning the machine, the Greek state will have to reduce spending by 3 billion euros.

Moreover, the main losers of a total failure would not be French or German banks, but banks Hellenic, which hold a total of 52 billion Greek bonds, 15% of the debt. But the margin of Greek banks is very limited, if not nonexistent.

"Bringing France to a system that works", "max out of Germany" … Yesterday, in his television interview, President Nicolas Sarkozy has once again praised the German economic success and the interest that France would have to be inspired.Henrik Uterwedde, deputy director of the Franco-German Institute in Ludwigsburg, analysis for expansion. Com fascination of French politicians for our neighbors.

How to interpret the willingness yesterday by Nicolas Sarkozy to "bring together the French and German economies"?

Henrik Uterwedde: I hear the speech, I wait for the acts, because this question is asked repeatedly by French politicians. In the 1970s, already, the president Valery Giscard d'Estaing had made the statement that Germany had more resilient to oil price shocks than France, and that, therefore, be based on the German model. But it was especially for the then government to denounce the behavior of unions and to better accept the French policy of fiscal restraint.We find ourselves a bit in the same situation today: the idea of ​​convergence is exploited for domestic policy.

In terms of unemployment, growth, public finances, Germany displays much better than France. Have we still not reasons to get closer to the German model?

Yes on the thoroughness, a word too long banned in France … However, each country has its own peculiarities, and it is difficult to translate the policies of the neighbor. We can watch what is happening elsewhere, but everyone must then find its way. Just look at the weight of SMEs in the economy, which is a major difference between France and Germany. The strength of our "Mittelstand", this network of small and medium enterprises, largely explains our export performance.

Research firm, which also reported a slowdown in activity in the third quarter, does not mention in its press release of a forecast growth in sales for 2011.

The group had said previously a target organic growth of over 6%.

"However, this reduction in growth prospects do not undermine the objective of Ipsos – Synovate out – to reach a record operating margin of at least 11% in 2011," the company said in a statement .

Ipsos, which became the third largest global market research industry by closing early October the acquisition of Synovate, said that the activity of the new entity should return to a normal rhythm "no later than summer 2012 ".

The third quarter sales of Ipsos, Synovate out to be consolidated from 1 October 2011, was $ 287.6 million, up 5.4% at constant scope and exchange rates, while Analyst estimates ranged from 5.6% to 6.0%.

It reflects a slowdown after growth of 6.4% announced in the second quarter and increased 6.2% over the first three months of the year.

The first nine months of the year, organic growth stood at 6.0% for sales to 845.8 million euros.

"The operating margin was up compared to the same period of 2010," said the company in a statement, without providing any figure indicated.

The French research company was particularly penalized in the third quarter by the slowdown in its business market research and advertising associated with a reduction in the number of client projects, Ipsos said.

Emerging economies, however, take the pace, with organic growth of 17% over nine months.

In its statement, the company said that the merger of the teams Synovate and Ipsos should be effective from January next year before the launch of a new integrated offering scheduled for February 15.

The two French car manufacturers have made inventory management a priority in order to avoid ending up in case of weaker demand in the same situation in 2008 when they accumulated levels of 80 to 90 days.

Renault wants to reduce its inventory from 50 to 60 days while the PSA is 60 days of inventory at the end of the year, against 76 days in late June.

"The days not worked must not be seen as heralding a fall in demand is a classic fit two months of the end of the year," said a Reuters spokeswoman for Renault.

She cites as evidence that Douai had experienced longer closures in 2009 and 2010.

"If demand was strong, particularly in France, we would not need to reduce the activity, ask instead how we supply the plants," said one union leader of the group in diamond.

The press reported on Monday and Tuesday as work at the Renault plant in Douai (Nord), which is produced Scenic, stop from Wednesday for nearly a week, while in Sandouville (Seine-Maritime) , Flins (Yvelines) and Novo Mesto (Slovenia), the teams would make the bridge from November 1.

In contrast, sites of Maubeuge (Nord) and Batilly (Moselle), respectively, out of which the utilities Kangoo and Master, are not affected by such measures.

Unlike the real short time, the teams concerned retain their full salary, as in the automotive sector, the "days not worked" are drawn from a capital established at time of peak activity.

EUROPEAN MARKET MORE UNCERTAIN

PSA Peugeot Citroën has set up its part of short days on several sites, and up to a week of closing the plant in Aulnay-sous-Bois (Seine-Saint-Denis) is produced when the Citroen C3.

PSA also suspend production at its plant in Slovakia to the end and mid-November, a decision in this case attributed to lower orders in Europe.

"Apart from Aulnay and Trnava (Slovakia), on the other sites it comes to fine tuning," said a spokesman for SAP.

Plants Aulnay and Trnava are both specialized in small cars, the most affected by the end of scrappage. The Slovak site, the 207 reaches the end of life as her replacement, the 208 will be unveiled to the public next month.

The chief executive of the group, Philippe Varin, warned in September that the European market had become more uncertain in the climate of sovereign debt crisis.He added that if nothing appeared again in the order books, we had to prepare for more difficult times.

PSA and Renault expect a slight relapse of the French automotive market in 2011 and 2012, and an overall stable European market on each of two years. Both manufacturers will release their sales for the third quarter Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

At a meeting of European finance ministers on Saturday, the president of the new European Banking Authority (BEA) said the country under aid program accounted for 38% of the overall deficit in the European banking system capital, it was estimated at 110 billion euros, it was told Reuters.

Another source confirmed the European project to include 46 billion pledged by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund for Ireland, Greece and Portugal for their banks, part of which has already been paid in this recapitalization plan.

"All the needs of banks of all countries in assistance is taken into account," it was said.

The subject has yet to be discussed again before the EU summit scheduled for Wednesday but the markets, who want to see European banks have as much capital to withstand the current crisis could react badly to such ads.

It would also have the effect of a large share of the burden of the recapitalization of banks Spanish, Italian and French, which, according to one source, account for 45% of the capital needs identified in the EU in recent inspections.

"The problem is that when you view the numbers shock, it is believed that the money is there," said one source, referring to the reluctance of European central bankers to publicly display the goals of recapitalization."But governments have no money," says one.

At Saturday's meeting, the ministers prepared a document delivered Sunday to Heads of State and Government with options for banks to grant new state guarantees to facilitate their search for financing in markets very tight.

Among the models examined, which will complement the movement of recapitalization, one that would be to coordinate government guarantees under the auspices of the ABE, has a good chance of being approved.

"At this stage, the preferred model", it was insured.

But if the decision of the rating agency to assess the stable outlook of the French financial risk rating to weigh on confidence vis-à-vis the currency area in the coming weeks, there is little chance that the risks associated materialize in the short term.

As for the long term, permanent mechanism for stability, which could take effect in July 2012, will shield the single currency which will have a solid capital structure and legal personality, making it impervious to turmoil on the notes of the national constituent countries.

Moody's justified its decision Monday night focusing on the risks to French growth and the potential costs of bank recapitalization and support to troubled countries in the euro area.

The news comes at the worst time when the leaders of the euro area, meeting Sunday in Brussels to agree on a strategy for Greece and their banks, already suffering from a lack of confidence from investors after almost two years of delay and 14 peaks that have failed to stem the crisis in Greece.

The risk premium associated with the French bonds jumped to a record since the inception of the euro after this warning, which now places a sword of Damocles over the Franco-German couple, the backbone of the currency area and the ultimate guarantor its stability.

Franco-German

The consequences could be felt this week and affect the contours of the European plan to reduce Greece's debt consistently, reinforcing the strength of the euro area banks by recapitalizing and maximize "the firepower of the fund to support the euro area (EFSF) by using leverage.

"The French are clearly vulnerable.It becomes difficult for them to talk on equal terms with Angela Merkel in terms of spreads (the spread between yields on French and German-Ed), "said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Euler Hermes.

Philippe Waechter, director of economic research at Natixis Asset Management, for its part considers that the new could curb the ability of Europeans to use the EFSF to relieve the ECB in resolving the crisis.

"It's true (that announcements by Moody's) can weaken the EFSF, debts are guaranteed by France to the tune of 158 billion euros, which is significant.It could create a doubt, "he says.

As for Alex Koagne, an analyst at Natixis bank, it is estimated that the bank recapitalization component that is affected first.

"The message from Moody's equivalent to saying that France can not help its banking sector.It's a way of saying: 'If your bank should be recapitalized, they will do in the markets,' "he said.

CALENDAR

Beyond the impact on trust, risk, however, are limited in the short term.

The "multiplier" of EFSF, which could be decided on Sunday, will have no impact on the sovereign ratings of countries in the euro area and could increase the response capacity of the fund to some 2,000 billion euros in guarantees, which does not weigh on the public accounts.

The recapitalization of banks should in turn be primarily via internal reserves and facilities through the market, with limited impact on finances.

Above all, the European Stability Mechanism (MES) could start operating sooner than expected

Legal personality of international institution and its 500 billion euros in capital, which can be more easily "multiplied", will make it impervious to changes in national sovereign debt notes.

The date is now planned on 1 July 2012 but some call for further accelerate this timetable.

Moody's has on its side no plans to go as fast and was given three months to choose whether or not the French note on negative outlook, before eventually withdrawing its maximum score within two years.

The Greek Secretary of State at the Ministry of Finance, Ilias Plaskovitis, will meet next week the Swiss government officials to advance an agreement between the two countries on the Greek capital flight, said Friday the Minister Evangelos Venizelos. "The Greek government is negotiating with the Government of the Federation Helvetic to develop a model agreement on the Swiss-German-Swiss or helvéto so that Greece can have the tax revenues of the Greeks deposits in Swiss banks," Venizelos said in Parliament during a debate on this subject.

"Mr.Plaskovitis will meet next week in Switzerland Swiss officials on this issue, "said the minister who hopes that" this agreement is ready by the next day. "" We need the Greek parliament is ready to accept such an agreement as did Germany and the UK, "said the minister. The Greek Socialist government has launched several months in a fight against tax evasion, but without much success so far.

"In 2009, capital flight amounted to 5.4 billion euros, 4.9 billion relate only 8,667 Greeks, including 42% say less than 20,000 euros in revenues," said Mr. Venizelos. The Minister reiterated that "tax evasion was a national crime, a national disaster" and described as "Kafkaesque" procedures for fiscal control.

He pledged to publish next week the names of taxpayers who have large debts vis-à-vis the state to force them to pay. "We have identified those who need more than one million euros to the state and we have requested assistance from private companies to collect these debts in cooperation with the tax officers," the minister said adding that " 15,000 individuals and companies need 37 billion euros, of which 32 billion are due by companies. " According to experts, Greek banks suffer from a significant lack of liquidity and considerable leakage of capital, totaled 70 billion euros since 2010.

The trade balance posted a deficit of 45.61 billion dollars, while the market was expecting a hole of 45.8 billion.

In July, the deficit eventually amounted to 45.63 billion (44.81 billion in the first estimate).

Exports were down 0.1% from July to 177.61 billion dollars while imports remained unchanged at 223.22 billion dollars.

The United States has accused a record trade deficit in relation to China, to 28.96 billion dollars against 26.96 billion the previous month.

In the morning, China announced that its trade surplus had declined in September for the second consecutive month, a statistic that reflects the weakness of the global economy and the slowdown in China itself, thus being factor decline in world stock markets.

Originally scheduled for Saturday afternoon, a decisive meeting of the board of the group was delayed until Sunday to give negotiators more time.

Belgian Prime Minister in charge of current affairs, Yves Leterme held talks in the morning by telephone with the head of the French government said on around him, while advisors from both countries met in Paris.

The finance ministers of both countries, Baroin and Didier Reynders, should discuss the matter later in the day, sources said in Brussels, which could take an inter-Belgian.

No comments could be reached immediately on the case in Paris.

The rating agency Moody's has increased pressure on the Belgian camp Friday night: it has placed the sovereign rating of Aa1 by explaining kingdom under surveillance will include assessing the costs and liabilities that the state could play in supporting Dexia.

The dismantling of the group could indeed go through a nationalization of the Belgian branch, Dexia Bank Belgium (DBB), which specializes in bank deposits.

One solution put forward in recent days by the interim government in Brussels but which opposed the three Belgian regions, which owns 5.7% of the group and who wish to retain a role in financing local governments.

Both sides, however, are closer to a compromise in recent hours, officials said a source familiar with the matter.

The Belgian daily L'Echo reported previously that the nationalization of DBB may be followed by a holding areas at a future capital increase of DBB.

LOAD difficult to allocate

The Echo adds, however, that the track of a redemption of DBB by a foreign bank is being considered and said that several institutions have expressed interest, including Deutsche Bank, Rabobank, Crédit Mutuel and BBVA.

Another key point of discussion: the distribution of the financial burden of dismantling between Belgium and France, whose participation combined with that of the Caisse des Depots (CDC) is around 25%.

Yves Leterme and Didier Reynders warned Thursday the French government that Belgium would not only burden.

The two countries should agree on such funding guarantees to provide for the financing necessary for the liquidation phase of a bond portfolio valued at 95 billion euros.

According to L'Echo, France keen to maintain its AAA rating, "defends a 60/40 split or 65/35" instead of the theoretical equilibrium 50-50 on the basis of the current distribution of capital."Belgium is not hostile," the daily.

Friday, François Fillon announced that the Deposit would release three billion euros to finance the French local authorities until a new entity formed by the Deposit and Consignment Office (CDC) and the Postal Bank takes over Dexia.

Before the board of directors of Dexia, Nicolas Sarkozy at the Elysee Palace has received the Director General of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde. It did not comment after the meeting.

The French president is scheduled to visit Sunday in Berlin for talks and a working dinner with Chancellor Angela Merkel before the summit of the euro area of ​​17 and 18 October and the G20 in Cannes on 3 and 4 November.A bilateral meeting during which the larger issue of the recapitalization of banks in Europe should be addressed.